
Client Conversations
Your plan says 87%. Here is what that number counts.
A Monte Carlo success rate is a counting rule, not a forecast. What the percentage actually counts, why two honest definitions disagree, and what to say instead.
Translating planning into language that lands at the kitchen table.

A Monte Carlo success rate is a counting rule, not a forecast. What the percentage actually counts, why two honest definitions disagree, and what to say instead.

Not a binder, not a probability of success score. A plan earns its keep by changing specific decisions in specific years. Here's where, and what the default costs.